Spain vs Italy prediction-Two of European football’s heavyweights step into the ring on Thursday evening, as Spain and Italy aim to secure a place in the knockout stages of Euro 2024.
Both won their opening Group B matches, so one more point should prove enough for the reigning champions and their Nations League progression.
Match preview
When Spain coach Luis de la Fuente sent his team into Berlin’s Olympiastadion for their Euro 2024 opener, he could hardly have dreamed they would come back to half-time with a three-goal lead against Croatia.
Spain vs Italy prediction-Alvaro Morata, Fabian Ruiz and Dani Carvajal all scored before the break to start the campaign on a high note, as Morata made it into double figures at the major tournament and Carvajal became the oldest Spanish scorer at the Euros.
A composed performance that saw the competition’s youngest player – 16-year-old Lamin Yamal, the creator of La Rosa’s third goal – and Unai Simon save a spot kick.
Hopes of Spain, European champions in 1964, 2008 and 2012, adding a fourth continental crown to their collection are high, as they have now lost one of 11 competitive games under on the De la Fuente, winning each of the last 7 game.
This represents their best run since 2017 and recent results against their next opponents in the so-called ‘Group of Death’ are particularly positive.
La Rosa beat Italy in successive UEFA Nations League semi-finals, going on to win last year’s edition for good measure – but they have never before won three consecutive matches against their Italian rivals.
Spain vs Italy prediction-Although their Iberian counterparts have held top spot of late, Spain vs Italy prediction-Italy memorably defeated Spain on penalties three years ago en route to Euro 2020 glory.
Since losing to La Rosa in the Nations League last June, the new-look Azzurri have lost just one of their next 12 matches – winning eight – and Luciano Spalletti has brought new energy to a team that had begun to falter under Roberto Mancini. .
However, Italy began their title defense in the worst possible fashion, before overcoming an early setback to take maximum points in Saturday’s Group B clash against Albania.
Sassuolo’s Nedim Bajrami set a new Euro record for the fastest goal ever – netting after just 23 seconds – but Spalletti’s side soon hit back: Alessandro Bastoni leveled the scores after 10 minutes, before his Inter Milan team-mate Nicolo Barella put them ahead.
Spain vs Italy prediction-Now unbeaten in 10 games at the European Championship – a 2-0 win over Spain in 2016 in the first match of that run – Italy’s last defeat in the competition came against the Republic of Ireland eight years ago.
Although considered outsiders this summer, the Azzurri’s ultimate ambition is to follow in Spain’s footsteps and become the second team to win back-to-back Euros. However, they need to ensure their progress to the knockout stages first.
Team News
Rodri and Alvaro Morata have both taken part in full training and will be available on Thursday, easing concerns over their fitness after last week’s win over Croatia.
However, Améric Laporte is struggling with an adductor injury after the French-born defender missed Spain’s opener entirely. He can now take a place on the bench with Nacho and Robin Le Normand continuing in the center of La Rosa’s back four.
Morata, the team captain, has now scored 10 times in 15 major tournaments for Spain, ahead of only David Villa (13).
Spain vs Italy prediction-In midfield, Fabian Ruiz will aim to be directly involved in two of the three goals against Croatia – assisting Morata’s opener and scoring the second.
Unai Simon continued between the posts, holding off competition from David Raya, although the Athletic Club goalkeeper will have to undergo a minor wrist operation after the Euros.
Indeed, few changes – if any – are expected in Luis de la Fuente’s lineup, with Dani Olmo and Alex Grimaldo in a long queue for promotion to the starting XI.
Spain vs Italy prediction-Meanwhile, Italy could also name an unchanged team in Gelsenkirchen, as all their players were available for training after their win over Albania.
Luciano Spalletti claims he is not tied to a specific formation, but the change in personnel would suggest a more cautious approach: Gianluca Mancini is a conservative centre-back compared to the forward-raiding Riccardo Calafiori; Brian Cristante could replace Roma team-mate Lorenzo Pellegrini to bolster the Azzurri’s midfield.
Spain vs Italy prediction-Both Calafiori and Pellegrini are one yellow card away from suspension, but they still remain favorites to start.
A sure man to feature is Niccolò Barella, who has now posted five goal involvements from his last seven Italy appearances. This Inter star will want to score in three consecutive international matches for the first time in his career.
Meanwhile, up front, Genoa striker Matteo Retegui is aiming to displace recent Europa League winner Gianluca Scamacca, who endured a disappointing night at Dortmund.
Spain probable starting lineup:
Spain vs Italy prediction-Simon; Carvajal, Le Normand, Nacho, Cucurella; Pedri, Rodri, Ruiz; Yamal, Morata, Williams
Italy Probable Starting Lineup:
Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Bastoni, Calafiori, DiMarco; Jorginho, Barella; Fratessi, Pellegrini, Chiesa; Scam
Spain vs Italy prediction: Spain 2-1 Italy
It will be the 11th meeting between Spain and Italy at a major tournament – a record between the two European nations.
Now meeting for a fifth straight Euro, they have also been familiar foes in the Nations League and La Rosa’s success over the Azzurri could continue.
A more varied attacking approach paid dividends against Croatia, while Italy’s defense remains suspect, so Spain can celebrate safe passage to the last 16.