OXFORD – Eighteen games into its SEC slate, MLB Ole Miss baseball has a path to the postseason – but it’s a narrow one.
The Insurgents, who lost two of three games at Georgia last weekend, sit at 21-18 overall and 6-12 in SEC play.
An improvement over the 3-15 mark they had at this stage of conference play last season. But more progress is needed to get MLB Ole Miss baseball back to the NCAA Regional after a national title defense in 2023 without even a berth in the SEC Tournament.
What will the Rebels do in the final four weeks of their schedule? Here’s what history tells us.
Where MLB Ole Miss baseball must finish in the SEC standings
Typically, the magic number for NCAA Tournament consideration is 13 SEC wins.
Since the SEC expanded to 14 teams for the 2013 season, only Alabama has made a regional that won fewer than 13 regular-season SEC games. In 2021, the Crimson Tide went 12-17, won a pair of games and advanced to the 2024 SEC Tournament in Hoover.
In the 14-team SEC, teams that win 13 conference games own a 5-for-12 success rate in receiving regional bids.
Odds improved considerably with 14th SEC win. In that benchmark, SEC teams went 9-for-12 Interestingly, SEC teams finished 15-15 6 for 9 – a slightly worse bid rate. However, it should be noted that a 15-win SEC team hasn’t missed since 2016, when the committee rejected both Alabama and Kentucky.
In six weekends of conference play, the Rebels have six wins to their name. History says they need seven wins over the final four weekends of the season to give themselves a shot.
A look at the MLB Ole Miss baseball RPI
Here’s the good news for the Rebels: No one has ever played a tougher schedule in college baseball.
Ole Miss’ opponents hold a 919-483 overall record through Monday – the highest mark of any team in the nation. The Insurgents’ SEC schedule is brutal with crossover series against Kentucky (32-7), Tennessee (33-7), Georgia (29-10) and South Carolina (27-13). The Insurgents’ remaining foes are SEC West teams.
The Rebels’ season-long results against some non-conference opponents have also been kind to their metrics. With a non-conference slate of schedules without top-tier foes, Ole Miss has also managed to avoid tankers on the resume. A matchup with North Alabama on Tuesday (it’s 11 p.m., SEC Network+) will be the Rebels’ first against a sub-200 RPI foe this year. They have played at least seven such games in the last three years.
All of these factors combined to keep Ole Miss’ RPI ranking at a healthy No. 24 in healthy shape compared to some of its peers. LSU, which finds itself in a similarly uneasy position, is ranked 39th. Florida and Mississippi State — two and four more SEC wins than the Rebels, respectively — ranked 35th and 45th.
Looking at MLB Ole Miss baseball’s path
None of that matters if the Rebels can’t find a way to win some games.
Their road series against Georgia was the first of three straight sets against SEC teams with a conference record losing streak. The rebels failed to calculate it.
Alabama 7-11 SEC comes to Swayze Field this weekend, then trip to Auburn (2-16 SEC). The Rebels close out their season with visits to Texas A&M (13-5 SEC) and LSU (5-13 SEC).
That’s a combined 27-45 SEC mark for MLB Ole Miss baseball’s remaining opponents. In other words: it’s manageable. But it’s also potentially damaging to the positive RPI position the Rebels have built for themselves if they don’t play well.