Liverpool, Arsenal and Man City share a point in the Premier League table; Mikel Arteta’s side have had the toughest league run in; The Gunners last won the league title 20 years ago; Premier League run-in and club statistics analysed.
Liverpool, Arsenal and Man City are separated by a single point in the Premier League table – but which team is most likely to take the crown in May?
Arsenal are new Premier League leaders after the Gunners’ 2-1 wins over Liverpool and Manchester Brentford followed by a 1-1 draw.
The title race – coined by AIT Sport’s Peter Drury as a “10-game season” – shows signs of going down to the wire on the final day of the season on Sunday 19 May.
Paul Merson described the run-in as “the greatest Premier League title run-in of all time”, while statistics revealed it was also the closest in history: never before had a point been shared between the first and third divisions after 28 games.
Read on and dive deep into the stats as we look at each side’s title chances, including expert judgment from Jamie Carragher and Roy Keane.
Liverpool: Liverpool, Arsenal and Man City
Reasons to be confident: Liverpool, Arsenal and Man City
Liverpool is attacking firepower took them to the top of the table but it could not quite get the win against Man City. They will hope that the availability of Mohamed Salah to start, having only come on as a substitute at Anfield on Sunday, will allow them to return to their free-scoring ways in the months ahead.
There is also encouragement at the other end of the pitch, with Virgil van Dijk back to his best, Caoimhin Kelleher continuing to prove an able deputy for the injured Alisson and Andrew Robertson fit again after four months out. Even teenagers Bobby Clarke, Jayden Dance and James McConnell are contributing impressively.
Could the announcement of Jurgen Klopp’s departure at the end of the season boost their chances? Certainly, emotion fueled the atmosphere at Anfield, with City lucky to escape with a point on Sunday. Other’s parties may not be so lucky for Liverpool, Arsenal and Man City.
Reasons to be cautious: Liverpool, Arsenal and Man City
Klopp has worked wonders with Liverpool’s midfield, rebuilding it almost from scratch last summer after the departures of Jordan Henderson, Fabinho, James Milner and Naby Keita. But they still don’t have a number 6 to rival Rodry or Declan Rice.
Further injurie’s to alisson and thiago alcantara further limit their options in those parts of the pitch and, despite van dijk is excellent form, the defense is also in doubt, with ibrahima konate now sidelined once again alongside long-term absentee Joel Matip.
They have conceded just 26 goals, second-fewest behind Arsenal, but is the current rate sustainable? City of people.
City of people
Reasons to be confident: Liverpool, Arsenal and Man City
How long have you got? Even with the draw at Anfield, Manchester City have the feeling of a side clicking, ready to blow away the competition once again in the second half of the season. They are unbeaten since December 6.
Guardiola’s players know what it takes to get over the line as they chase an unprecedented fourth straight title win. They have recovered from a much worse situation than the one they found themselves in earlier this season.
Their strength in depth is unmatched, allowing them to plow on without the caliber of Kevin De Bruyne and Erling Haaland. Guardiola actually described both Phil Foden and Rodri as their “players of the season”.
Now that De Bruyne and Haaland are back, and the injury list is clear, they will be confident of doing what it takes to win a record title.
Reasons to be cautious.
It is important that no team has won four consecutive league titles. With Liverpool and Arsenal in fierce competition, and still three competitions away, can they maintain the level required for a fourth consecutive season? There is a reason it is never been done before on Liverpool, Arsenal and Man City.
Another glimmer of hope for their rivals is that they look even more defensively vulnerable than they did last campaign. Having conceded 28 goals in 28 games, they are close to their highest loss under Guardiola, almost equaling the 2016/17 campaign, when they finished third.
City have made a habit of conceding their opponents’ first shots on target, last weekend’s Manchester derby being the latest example. There were further signs of defensive frailty in the number of chances they conceded against Liverpool on Sunday.
Arsenal
Reasons to be confident:
Arsenal are considered the most unlikely of the three contenders, but the title is usually won by the best defense and the Gunners seem to have got that this season. Their expected goals against Mote are unrivaled, reflecting their ability to stifle chances.
Arsenal haven’t found a level to match their defensive prowess in the early part of the season but that seems to be changing. The performance against Brentford was not their best but they have scored 33 goals in their last eight league games. The floodgates have opened.
Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli certainly seem to have reached peak form, while Martin Odegaard, Leandro Trossard and Kai Havertz could also see improvement. Meanwhile, Gabriel Jesus, Thomas Partey and Fabio Vieira are all back from injury, with Jurien Timberlake not far behind.
Declan Rice’s influence in midfield has been immense and the group looks hungrier and mentally stronger than last season.
Reasons to be cautious: Liverpool, Arsenal and Man City
Last season’s capitulation hangs over them. Having surrendered such a healthy lead over City when it looked like they would never have a better chance, they now have a lot to prove in staying power. These players do not have the experience of winning trophies like their rivals.
Despite Arsenal’s recent improvement in attack, the number 9 position also remains a question mark. Jesus gives them a lot, but he is not a prolific scorer. Could the lack of that out and out striker with a killer touch still cost them?
Unlike Liverpool, who escaped their own tour with a draw, Arsenal will also travel to the Etihad Stadium, a great test at a ground where they have a poor record. Races can be decided by fine margins, where defeat can do serious damage.