I wanted to find some players who could be in for a fantasy baseball negative regression in 2024. A player can knowledge negative regression and remain useful. He may even excel in fantasy baseball. I think of this as more of a “buyer beware” list. With that in thought, here are my top fantasy baseball negative regression candidates for 2024.
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2024 Fantasy Baseball Negative Regression Candidates
Jose Altuve (2B – HOU)
Jose Altuve has been one of the best 2nd basemen in fantasy baseball negative regression for over a decade. And I hope him to be one of the best at his position this season. However, I trust he is in store for some fantasy baseball negative regression. Altuve’s batting average has risen for three straight seasons, capping off last year’s .311 mark. But his hoped batting average (xBA) was just .245. This is the first time in the Statcast era (not counting the abbreviated 2020 season) that Altuve’s xBA has been lower than .262. The .066 distinction between Altuve’s AVG and his XBA was the highest in baseball last season. His average was a .348 batting average (BABIP) on balls in play. The number was its highest in that metric since 2018.
Altuve has been a solid contributor in recent years, with 32 combined steals in 231 games since 2022. But his sprint speed dropped to a career-low 38th percentile last season. Altuve has shown the ability to adjust to plate situations throughout his career. He has a knack for hitting bases through the infield when his team needs it or taking advantage of Houston’s small left-field porch when the situation calls for it. Alike, he is savvy enough to pick and choose his spots on the basepaths. I don’t think Altuve is having a bad season.
Blake Snell (SP – SF)
Hey look, it’s Blake Snell on the list of fantasy baseball negative regression candidates. What are the odds? I promise there’s more to my reasoning for Blake Snell being on this list than, “Look what happened the last time he won a Cy Young Award.” He was legitimately very good last season. Among the 99 starting pitchers who allowed at least 350 batted ball events (BBE) last year, Snell had the lowest ERA with a 2.25 mark. Only Gerrit Cole came within half of Snell’s number of runs. But Snell ranks just 20th among the group of pitchers with a 3.77 xERA. The 1.52 difference between Snell’s ERA and xERA was easily the highest among the group. No other pitcher had a differential higher than 1.19. Snell’s 1.52 mark is his highest since 2019 after the famed trio of Dakota Hudson, Zach Davis and Brett Anderson launched the strategy.
The good news for Snell is that he is much better than any of those three pitchers. Snell has elite strikeout potential. He has struck out 29.7% of hitters over his entire career, including six seasons with a K rate of 30.9% or higher. However, his 86.7 left on-base percentage was easily the highest among starters and appears to be due to regression. Snell eventually signed with the San Francisco Giants last week. The last time Snell changed teams, his ERA was 4.20 in 2021 for San Diego. This may be an outlier, but considering his late signing, it may be a situation worth observing. Snell will likely take a few weeks to ramp up to full speed. Snell is a top-25 fantasy starter this year but I don’t necessarily see him as a bargain relative to his average draft position (ADP).
Matt McLain (2B, SS – CIN)
Matt McLain hit the ground running upon his callup in 2023, hitting .290 over 89 games with 65 runs scored and 50 RBIs with 16 homers and 14 steals. But those numbers seem a bit high based on his underlying metrics. McLain had an xBA of .256 last year. Still a solid number but well below his actual average. He struck out 28.5% of the time. That puts him in the 16th percentile among all MLB hitters. For reference, McLain had a similar strikeout rate (28.1%) over 103 games in AA in 2021. That year, he hit .232. While I’ll bet “over” on MacLain hitting higher than .232 this year, I’ll bet “under” on him hitting less than .290.
Perhaps more importantly, MacLain is dealing with an injury that appears to be more serious than previously reported. MacLane “should be fine” after being scratched with a shoulder injury, according to reports last week. Since then, he’s had an MRI that revealed a problem that required a second opinion. McLain is expected to start the season on the injured list (IL) due to a shoulder injury. Even if MacLain returns to action relatively quickly, fantasy managers can’t count on the production he provided last season.